Showing posts with label UN. Show all posts
Showing posts with label UN. Show all posts

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Targeting Gaddafi

Like most things in the military, planning is structured. The planning process is known the MAP – the Military Appreciation Process. It is a systematic and structured process that aims to ensure that all elements have been considered and that a plan meets the test of being feasible, acceptable, suitable and distinguishable enough from other plans to warrant consideration on its own. One of the first steps is to create a Centre of Gravity Construct. This allows the planner to shape a plan to target an opponent's weaknesses. General H. Norman "Stormin'" Norman wrote extensively about it in his autobiography. The Centre of Gravity has a long-winded doctrinal definition, but essentially it is the "thing" that, if you kick it out, will cause your opponent to topple. I have had a quick bash at creating a CoG construct for the first phase of any operation to topple Gaddafi. If the war in Iraq taught us anything, it is that subsequent planning must be focussed on winning the peace as comprehensively as winning the war. This idea, which I bashed out on a slow Saturday night over a couple of beers, is not aimed at a "Phase 2" plan, but at removing a dictator to facilitate a transition into something else. I am not a General, or a politician, or even a planner on a staff HQ. It is just the ousting of Gaddafi according to Sharpe.


Centre of Gravity

Gaddafi's ability to crush dissent and control the population.

Critical Capabilities

Combat Power

Traditional Loyalties

Finance

Propaganda

Critical Requirements

  • Air Power
  • Land Forces
  • Weapons/ Consumable munitions
  • Moral authority to employ force
  • Tribal supporters
  • Chain of Command
  • Reputation
  • Ability to portray the opposition as a threat to traditional values
  • Oil revenue Offshore funds
  • International funding
  • Control of domestic media
  • Information operations/ dissemination of information
  • Religious leaders

Critical Vulnerabilities

  • NATO/UN forces have considerable capability overmatch to his Air Force, which is vulnerable both to destruction on the ground and interdiction in the air.
  • Land Forces can be functionally dislocated from the rebel elements by forcing engagement with a coalition land force – not necessarily of sufficient mass to conquer Libya, but sufficient to draw Gaddafi's land forces away from the popular revolt.
  • Weapons/Consumable munitions can be targeted through embargoes as well as direct strikes against munitions storage facilities.
  • Moral authority to employ force can be targeted through Information Operations – see column 4.
  • Military and political embarrassment of Gaddafi will erode the loyalty of his tribal supporters.
  • Gaddafi's Chain of Command can be targeted by isolating his command structure through targeted destruction of his communications.
  • His reputation as the tribal "strong man" is vulnerable to attack both physically through decisive military defeats, and politically by international refusal to acknowledge his legitimacy.
  • His ability to portray the opposition as a threat to traditional values can be undermined by tying him to international terrorism – see column 4.
  • Isolation of Gaddafi's finances has already begun, through the quarantining of offshore funds etc.
  • This will need to be expanded and targeted to deny him funds to prosecute his continued defiance.
  • Control of domestic media can be targeted both physically and through the EM spectrum. Destruction of broadcast facilities would constitute a short-term solution, but would deny friendly elements the ability to use those in the future. Denial through the disruption of bandwidth is a better long-term solution.
  • His ability to influence the Information Operations battle can be targeted through a comprehensive counter-IO plan, using traditional media as well as social media to tie Gaddafi to the Lockerbie bombing and support for various terrorist agencies etc to undermine his recurrent theme of branding the protesters as terrorists. In addition, a positive campaign to tie the protesters to a democratic future for Libya will undermine his supporters and deny him legitimacy.
  • Religious leaders can be targeted by isolating the political struggle from religious orthodoxy. IO campaigns need to differentiate between political and religious identity.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Three genuine peace activists murdered

No, I'm not referring to the recent tragic news of the three Australian SF soldiers recently killed in a helicopter accident. Accidents will happen when machines and men are pushed to their limits in an environment of threat, and while their deaths are a tragedy, it is hardly worthy of the fury of speculation as to the future of Australia's commitment to the war in Afghanistan. If anything, it is slightly unbecoming for the deaths of three men whose commitment to the objectives of this war can hardly be questioned to be used as a catalyst for discussion of the abandonment of those same objectives. Their sacrifice ought to be honoured and serve as a reminder of the deadly seriousness of the endeavour and to steel the resolve of our leaders to see that their sacrifice was not in vain.


The three genuine peace activists I refer to in the title are the three UN Peacekeepers killed in a random action in the western region of Darfur on Monday. The peacekeepers were providing protection to civilian engineers when they were attacked. This latest attack takes the toll of UN Peacekeepers killed in Darfur to 27 since the UN took over the operation from the African Union in 2007.


In contrast to the agent provocateurs who committed suicide by IDF Commando on the Mediterranean several weeks ago, these genuine peace activists will go unmourned by the world media because they were killed by Islamic bandits and not teh evil Juice.

Friday, May 28, 2010

Half truths, ignorance and lies

I was floating around the net the other day and popped in to Lav Paper, just to see how they could warp perception to suit a narrow worldview – again. There I read a post about a UN report into the practices of the RPNGC linked to the amount of Australian aid money going to PNG, a significant portion of which gets sucked up in consultant fees etc. Wondering how they might turn that extravegent waste into an ideaological issue, I had a look.

There I found, completely to my absolute lack of surprise, various commenters making sweeping statements purporting to be facts that bore only a passing resemblance, if any, to the truth. Of note was this gem from someone called billie:

From what little I know we have a long history of ham fisted actions in PNG probably due to lack of knowledge of PNG & its society. When Bouganville (sic) Copper mine was established the miners did not talk to the land owners. They talked to some men – but in New Britain society land is owned by the women.Get a map of the area. Bouganville (sic) is on New Britain. New Britain is really part of the Solomon Islands. New Guinea is the large island to the south The royalties were paid to Port Moresby. The people of New Britain are ethnically different to the people of New Guinea so money sent to Port Moresby stayed in New Guinea. The people effected (sic) by the mine site were not compensated for the disruption. When the mine closed after a landowner disturbances (sic) the PNG Army went through Bouganville (sic) house by house, street by street shooting
every body (sic). Most Australian ex-pats had left by then so most victims were locals. [A bit like the mining company in Avatar]


There was also this from a resident whacko called Lefty E:


Its (sic) worth reminding ourselves that Australia is the former colonial power here, and equally that we supported the PNG army to the hilt in Bougainville despite abundant evidence of human rights abuses – so let not our outrage blind us to our share of responsibility.

And of course, we also pulled our own police from line positions in PNG when their High Court determined we couldn't have full immunity from any prosecution (leading by example in terms of police accountability there!)

But all that duly noted – yep: any AU funding of the securty (sic) sector at least must be made conditional on transparent action on these human rights abuses.


I did get suckered into a response. My responses are as follows:


Billie is quite right. He/she really does know very little about PNG. It is true that many tribes from New Britain are matrilineal, but that is largely irrelevant because the point was being made about Bougainville, formerly North Solomons Province and quite separate from New Britain. It is true that Bougainvilleans are also a matrilineal society, which is different from a matriarchal society. It was quite culturally appropriate for BCL to speak to the men, they are the figurehead front. It is for the men to then speak to the women, the owners of the land, before they made any agreement with BCL. It would have been a gross imposition of our own cultural mores for BCL to directly approach the landowners.

I was living in PNG when the crisis started, and subsequently served in Bougainville with the Peace Monitoring Group, so you could say I was there at the start and at the finish. There had long been a secessionist bent in Bougainville, although the actual catalyst came from a negotiating failure on the part of the Panguna Landowners Association. The initial compensation figure demanded was, from memory, about twice what the mine had ever earned. It degenerated quickly because it was led by a lunatic, who eventually holed himself in at Panguna, declared himself the President of the Republic of Mekamui and eventually, King. Bougainville, with the financial support of BCL, was far better off than the rest of the South West Pacific prior to the crisis. All that came to a crashing halt when the BRA either blew up or burned down all of the benefits that came with the mine whilst also removing any capability they might have had to repair the damage the mine had done.

Atrocities were committed on both sides, in fact, make that all three sides. The BRA and the PNGDF were busy mauling each other when some of the locals decided that things were a whole lot better before it all started, and sided with the PNGDF. The BRA then retaliated and a nice little three-way fight ensued and civilian casualties were caused by all three groups. Yes Lefty E, Bob Hawke did send ADF elements to assist the PNGDF, although that was before it turned into a Civil War during the early phase of the Counter-insurgency. Our military aid consisted of unarmed helicopters piloted by Australians. They were quickly withdrawn when it became clear that human rights abuses, as well as terms of use violations, were occurring. The ALP Government then turned a blind eye to what was happening while the PNGDF blockaded the islands and let Bougainville sink into the horrific condition it was in when NZ decided to actually do something about it, with the support of the Howard Government.

It is also true that Bougainvilleans consider themselves more closely aligned to the Solomon Islands than PNG, although having served there as well, my own observation is that they have about as much in common with the Solomon Islands as they do with PNG. That didn't stop the crisis in Bougainville impacting on the Solomon Islands. The BRA were using the Solomon Islands as a staging area and safe haven from the PNGDF, running the gauntlet along the narrow strait to Choiseul Island. Although, as the crisis in the Solomons was later to show, they don't play well with their close neighbours, no matter how closely culturally aligned they may claim to be.


As to the issue of the AFP demanding immunity from prosecution, the "nuance" being missed here is that the immunity in question was not from any prosecution, but from prosecution in PNG. In order for the AFP to actually do the job asked of them, they would need to go after some of the big men in the inherently corrupt PNG legal system. They are the sort of people capable of avoiding prosecution by hauling AFP members in front of the PNG judicial system and seeing their problems disappear into the bowels of Bomana Prison. The AFP was still answerable to Australian law.

The rampant corruption in PNG derives predominantly from the Wantok System, whereby a man's principle obligation is not to his office, but to the extended clan – his wantoks. If Fran really wants to find the prima facie culprit for the mess in PNG, she need look no further than Gough Whitlam. In his rush to rid Australia of terribly unfashionable status of being a colonial power, he threw the people of PNG under the bus by abandoning our colonial obligations. Somehow, in the heady days of the "It's Time" campaign, the thought that thrusting Westminster Democracy on a stone age agrarian hunter/gatherer society was going to lead to anything other than what PNG is now, escaped the great thinkers in the ALP. PNG is rapidly on the way to becoming a failed state. The contribution from Australia to fix it is going to be significantly more costly than all the consultants in Canberra and will require a more robust legal framework than immunity from prosecution under PNG law.

Nobody has responded yet. I guess they all got distracted by Tony Abbott's recently announced refugee policy.




Monday, February 15, 2010

Best photo ever

This is so very apt. Every time my peers and I would discuss day to day events while working for the UN in Africa, words like UN-efficient, UN-workable, UN-realistic, and UN responsive would be common.


This photo just adds that motivational .ppt slant to a frequent meme.

Enjoy.
(Disclaimer: I am aware that the antonym of efficient is inefficient. Most of my peers were working in English as a second language, so I forgave them their minor lapses.)